6/9/13

NFL PREVIEW!

How does this seem to come around so quickly every year?

AFC EAST

Probably the easiest division to call, again. The Jets are an absolute mess, nothing to get excited about, Geno Smith might be talented but he’s not Cam/RGIII/Luck level, and his supporting cast is nowhere near what they have. The Bills are an interesting team, they’ll run all game and try to nail the play action, but I’ve concerns about Spiller’s ability to carry a full full load, and outside of Stevie Johnson it’s a seriously unproven passing attack, including the QB.

The Dolphins have chucked money after money to make themselves competitive, but Mike Wallace isn’t a reliable receiver, Dustin Keller is injured (awfully so!) and their running back situation isn’t as clear as people would like you to believe, Daniel Thomas is garbage and there seems to be an assumption that Lamar Miller is a top tier running back. A gamble.

The Patriots, no Hernandez, no Welker, no Lloyd, no worries. It’s Tom Brady, Gronkowski looks ready to go, Danny Amendola is a young Wes Welker (fitness issue) and a very strong running game. They’re maybe not as special as in years gone by, but they don’t need to be, obvious AFC East winners.

AFC NORTH

The Steelers are still in transition, really lacking in offensive proper weapons and a defense that is still developing, they might finish bottom of the North.

The Browns for once aren’t completely garbage, a new offensive system which could highlight Josh Gordon’s big play ability, a genuinely tough defense and Trent Richardson. A one man offense, really capable of becoming one of the elite players at his position.

The Ravens being the defending champions still sounds weird. The Joe Flacco led offense defending champions. Sure. They probably didn’t play to their potential throughout the season, but more than peaked when it mattered, a dream season for them. They’ve probably gone backwards a little since, with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed leaving, certainly not the players they once were but very much will be losses as leaders, it’ll be interesting to see how they can recover. Should slot in as the second best. The one shining light will be Ray Rice, time to step up as a full leader, no other big time playmakers. He could have a big season.

The best, without doubt for me, The Bengals. A sack happy defense, an offense that can do everything. I genuinely don’t think there’s a more complete team in the AFC, never mind the North. The big pressure is on Andy Dalton I guess, but he’s proven himself as a game manager at worst. With their RB combo, they can do the thunder and lightning combinations, two pass catching TEs and one of the properly elite WRs. How to stop it? I don’t think the answer is in this division.

AFC WEST

Another garbage division, another easy pick.

The Raiders are the worst team in the NFL. Without doubt, there’s a few garbage ones (Jets and Jaguars come close) but there’s just nothing at all there for the Raiders. No QB (Pryor? After spending big on two veterans in three years? Terrible terrible management). Darren Mcfadden being a workhorse back? Nobody worth anything attempting to catch the ball/get near overthrown balls. If they don’t finish with the worst record I’ll be amazed. Their one potential bonus is that they have to play the other two terrible teams. Could sneak a win in one of those maybe.

The Chiefs somehow ended up with the worst record, but sent six players to the Pro Bowl. Hmm. Maybe just scrap the Pro Bowl?

The Chiefs will definitely improve this year, a new QB and a new head coach, both massive improvements. A strong overall roster, with an elite RB and potentially elite WR, if focused and getting the ball somewhere near him. I can’t see them matching the Broncos, but will finish well clear of the Raiders and Chargers, a work in progress but positive years ahead.

The Chargers are also just a nothing team, from those LT dominated years a few years back now, to this, it is an entirely different franchise. Phillip Rivers has no-one to throw to (injuries and inability), no-one to keep him upright and no chance of winning the division. It’s great to see such a loud mouth moron as Rivers ending his career as a loser most weeks, fully justified for a career of acting the wanker.

The Broncos are the clear pick of the division, if Peyton stays fit. Adding Wes Welker to an already great pass attack was a great move, Thomas will still attract double coverage leaving Welker and Decker in single coverage. Their one trouble will be missing the dominant Von Miller in the first few weeks of the season, and potential questions about their secondary. Basic blown coverage cost them their playoffs last year, that sloppiness can’t be there this year, or the same outcome will come around.

AFC SOUTH

So yeah, The Jaguars are toss. If MJD is fit he can carry them to a couple of games, but Blaine Gabbert is just not a starting QB, regardless of their insistence in starting him. It’s such a hindrance. Bottom of the divison.

The Titans are a weird team, young potential in the receivers but ultimately nothing to rely on, the offensive line has bulked up again, so Chris Johnson can go for 2,000 yards again, definitely. He’ll need to play at his best for this team to get near .500, I don’t see it.

The Colts were THE story of the NFL last year, Chuckstrong and the Andrew Luck show. A great story, a great year. However, the sort of success they had isn’t repeatable, Andrew Luck is legit, but at this point the team isn’t. They’re probably stronger on paper with the addition of Ahmad Bradshaw and a year of development for TY Hilton but I don’t think they’ll be as strong in the win/losses for this year.

The Texans are up with the Bengals as the most complete teams in the AFC. Another game manager QB, a decent WR, not in AJ Green’s league but Andre Johnson is good enough, and a brilliant RB tandem, depending on Arian Foster getting and staying fit, potentially a big ask. Another big ask if Cushing returning to his old level, and JJ Watt being as dominant as last year, if they can, they’ll be in the title game contention. Obvious winners again.

NFC EAST

Like the AFC East being the easiest division to call, the NFC East remains the most difficult. Four pretty much evenly matched teams, all running different types of football.

I’m picking the Cowboys, they’ve put their faith clearly in Tony Romo, now is his time to step up and be counted as a real NFL leading QB, he can do it in the first fourteen weeks, now he has to show he can do it in the winter. Dez Bryant is being highly tipped as the X Factor WR this year, based on a tremendous end to last year, I think it’s a bit risky to pin too much hope on a largely inconsistent receiver, because he’s in good form. I still think the Cowboys can win out, but not because of Bryant.

The Redskins won the division last year, led by RGIII’s monster rookie season and Alfred Morris blowing up. This year, RGIII is another knee injury down and promising to try and slide more. This seems like a more conservative offense coming, can RGIII run a non-pistol offense successfully? Can Alfred Morris still go for 1,600 yards? I’m not convinced on either, though they should be better defensively, not enough to win the division again.

The Giants are such a tough team to call, can David Wilson be the game changing back they need? Will Nicks and Cruz stay fit all year? Will Eli consistently find them if so? For a team who come so good in the playoffs, they’re a weird team to define. JPP pulls off amazing looking plays, but still plays on one of the worst defenses. I just can’t see them bringing it together over a full year to get in again, but they’ll probably pull off some huge victories.

If The Giants are tough to second guess, then what about Chip Kelly’s Eagles team? Running his high tempo offense, with Michael Vick at the helm, Shady McCoy and Bryce Brown running the ball, it sounds exciting, but, it’s never been done to this level in the NFL before, a few hits to Vick and Foles or Barkley wanders in, there’s no way this offense can keep up those standards without a quick tempo QB. I can see it crumbling as soon as Vick misses time, which will come. It always does.

NFC NORTH

Another new offensive scheme with the Marc Trestman system coming in at Chicago, to get the best from Matt Forte’s receiving skills out the backfield, try and keep Jay Cutler upright by getting rid of the ball early. It sounds good, but it’s Jay Cutler, he’ll still stand too tall too long, and still take a pasting. They were a 10-6 team last year, just missed the playoffs and it got Lovie Smith the sack, I really can’t see them improving and winning the division this year.

I had the Lions as a wildcard team last year, based on Stafford and Megatron (and Pettigrew, hmm), they’re still there and they’ve added the best receiving RB in the league to the mix, Reggie Bush. How many times can Matthew Stafford throw the ball this year? 1,000? I think he’ll have a monster year, and the team will improve from last year, but I won’t be saying Wildcard this year.

I think the Vikings could go from second to bottom, seriously, load the box, stop AP. I absolutely love AP, he’s probably my favourite player to watch in the league, but it’s a one man offense. Is anyone worried by Christian Ponder? Greg Jennings? Kyle Rudolph? The loss of Percy Harvin is going to be massive unless Cordarelle Patterson becomes the new Randy Moss, they’re going to be seriously one dimensional, even if that dimension is the best in football, it’s defendable.

Certainly not an ‘easy’ call, but I can’t see anyone but the Packers winning this division. The best QB in the league is still Aaron Rodgers, they’ve bulked up their RBs, Eddie Lacy has the potential to go for 15 TDs which is something they’ve lacked in a long time. The injury to Bulaga will be felt, but Aaron Rodgers getting poor protection hasn’t slowed him down yet, so I’ll keep the faith in his throwing on the run for now. Randall Cobb has the ability and opportunity to be the most electric receiver in the NFL.

NFC WEST

From worst to first? In terms of strength of division, obviously. I’m not tipping the Cardinals, for once.

The two best NFC teams both reside in the same division, both very tough defenses, led by young mobile QBs who know how to run, pass and lead their teams.

I’m going with the Seahawks to pip the 49ers, quite simply, Wilson has shown he can win without Percy Harvin, can Kaepernick win without Michael Crabtree? Probably, but I think it’s a bigger hindrance. Two great teams though, two playoff teams.

Jeff Fisher has really put the ball in Sam Bradford’s court now, adding Jared Cook and Jake Long on his offense, then drafting Tavon Austin, a potential massive difference maker. The loss of Steven Jackson will be felt, but going RB by committee seems a sensible approach, they should provide a balanced offense. An intriguing team, in the wrong division though.

Another improving team will be the Cardinals, by the simple method of having an actual QB throwing the ball. Such simple moves, not exactly a revolution, but adding Mendenhall and Palmer should give them an actual chance to compete in this division. Like The Rams, in another division they could challenge for a playoff spot, but it’s too much to do so in this one.

Two dominant and two interesting teams, a great division to watch.

NFC SOUTH

I tipped the Falcons last year, and all year I was feeling pretty confident, then, blew it in the playoffs. This year I’m not even tipping them to win the divison..

I’m going with the returning Sean Payton to bring his New Orleans Saints back to the top. Drew Brees is still one of the top two QBs in the league, the receiving corps aren’t quite as good but Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles are outstanding options, Mark Ingram seems poised to step up from his inconsistent start without Chris Ivory splitting the work, though Pierre Thomas remains. This is probably the most gut call of my division winners, but Payton’s a guy who does anything to win, having had a year of his career taken from him. I just think he’ll pull it round.

The Falcons are obviously a great team, very little has changed since last year other than massively upgrading their RB, the plodding Michael Turner out for a significantly better back in Steven Jackson. I can’t wait to see how Jackson will play in a team that actually wins games and won’t have the box stacked against him all game, every game. He deserves a good end to his career, I hope he gets it.

The Panthers and Buccs are quite similar to me, the Revis signing probably pushes the Buccs ahead, but in Doug Martin and Cam Newton they both possess an electric player, but both are such standouts for their teams, potentially average teams otherwise. The Buccs are probably more likely to step up, but I don’t really trust Josh Freeman to win the tough games.

So, round up!

AFC East New England Patriots

AFC North Cincinnati Bengals

AFC West Denver Broncos

AFC South Houston Texans

AFC Wildcards  Kansas City Chiefs & Baltimore Ravens

NFC East Dallas Cowboys

NFC North Green Bay Packers

NFC West Seattle Seahawks

NFC South New Orleans Saints

NFC Wildcards  San Francisco 49ers & Atlanta Falcons

For my Superbowl pick, I’ll go Saints over the Texans.

BETS

Superbowl Winner – Texans, Saints (16/1 and 20/1)

Division Winners – Texans, Packers, Patriots, Bengals, Cowboys, Seahawks, Broncos, Saints. (5/6/7/8 folds)

Worst record – Oakland Raiders (11/4)

Most Rushing Yards – Ray Rice (25/1)

Most Receiving Yards – Randall Cobb (40/1)

Most Passing Yards – Andrew Luck (20/1)

All Yardage bets are E/W to four places.

 

5/9/13

FOOTBALL FOOTBALL FOOTBALL.

I am very excited for the return of the football season, just getting my season preview typed up now, bets on. Annoyingly missing the first game of the season, as I value my job, to a degree.

Picking the Broncos to open in style though, I’ve got them -7.5 (evens) and Montee Ball anytime TD  (2/1)

21/1/13

Murderer Ray is going (back) to the Superbowl!

Two decent games, though my Superbowl prediction went to shit on both counts, balls. My pre season bet on the Falcons to win died too, wah wah wah.

I’m probably not crying as much as Stevan Ridley though, jeeeeeesus. Monster hit.

20/1/13

PLAYOFFS!

Looking forward to a 3am finish. Ideal prep for work.

Both seriously tight games, I’ve not checked who the betting favourites are, I’d expect New England and San Fran will be favourites, but I’ll stick with my pre season pick of New England vs Atlanta for the Superbowl.

Every week I seem to underestimate San Francisco, so I’m not going to act properly confident about it.

9/11/12

As a person with a keen interest in Fantasy Football, both NFL and regular football, I’m always after a way to try and nail a surprise high score, or eek out a little value.

Last night, after getting annoyed at the thought of seeing Vick either get battered by the Cowboys, ruining my fantasy week, or batter the Cowboys, ruining my NFL week, I decided to look for some extra value from the Waiver Wire. Palmer/Fitzpatrick were my two obvious go to guys, but then stumbled on the Thursday Night Football game..

Could I play Blaine Gabbert? I do love having someone in the early game..

Plus, he’s got thirty points in the last two games, all his receivers are fit, Blackmon’s got his first TD, the Colts D hasn’t restricted a QB to single digit points.

YES! Let’s do it.

Go Blainey G.

Seven points. Fucking idiot.

23/9/12

After nearly a full season of weekly watching it, I can’t decide if I love NFL Redzone, or if it’s actually ruining my proper appreciation of the game, it’s just so easy to sit and watch big play after big play, ignoring the proper narratives of the sport.

You do get more of a feel for the full week developing though, seeing the Saints implode, the Lions balls up OT, the Cowboys marching to the Superbowl. What a week.

6/9/12

NFL 2012 SEASON PREVIEW

Amazingly, it’s that time of year again, the Fantasy Draft has been done, the ante post bets are done, so obviously it’s Season Preview time.

AFC EAST

Possibly the easiest division to predict this year, even without Chad Ochocinco, I can’t see past the Patriots winning comfortably. Aaron Hernandez/Gronk/Welker/Lloyd is a great set of receivers, obviously, so long as Brady avoids injury I just can’t see teams keeping up with them. I think Hernandez is in for a massive year this year, at 75% of the NFL teams he’d be a brilliant TE1, but the double set works so well for them, they’ve both been paid, they’ll both get the ball. Perfect.

The Jets have gone backwards,even with #tebowtime coming in. No strengthening at the skill offensive positions will cost them eventually, Santonio Holmes doesn’t look anywhere near a serious WR1 in this league. I can’t see them making the playoffs this year. Rex Out? Miami are seriously poor, no WRs, no proven RB, an unproven (and overhyped?) QB  and Jake Long is injured. It’s going to be a very tough year for them.

My tip for second in the division is the Bills, with a solid ground game with Fred Jackson doing the bruiser running and CJ Spiller a great change of pace/gadget back, they’re well equipped to do the ground and pound, but they’ve also got Ry Fitz who’s a capable, if unspectacular QB, and a relatively decent receiver set. Their big bonus is going to be their defensive front seven though, adding Mario Williams to an already strong bunch could be brilliant, the defense already showed their opportunism last year coming in the top ten for INTs and forced fumbles. They’ve certainly got the makings of a playoff team this year.

AFC NORTH

THE tough division in football, there isn’t a match for it in the current NFL, obviously led in reputation by the two favourites, the Steelers and the Ravens. Obviously for what seems a while now, it’s those two and two relatively soft teams, but this year I actually think the Bengals will finish ahead of the Steelers.

Getting the rubbish out of the way, Cleveland are going with a 28 year old rookie at QB. Along with a seemingly very talented but injury prone RB (two knee operations) going up against three of the toughest run defenses in the league. It’s surely too tough of an ask, if the Browns can come through the season without getting humiliated and without major injuries, they should judge it as a success. There’s new ownership coming in (a Steelers fan none the less), so it’ll be interesting to see how the Browns can try and improve in future years.

I just see this being a year of struggles for the Steelers, they’ve lost two huge dressing room figures in Hines Ward and James Farrior, they’ve had a summer contract annoyance with Mike Wallace and their RB1 is injured without a definite return date. On top of that, this summer they’ve suffered with injuries along their O-Line, I just can’t see how they’re going to be tough enough, considering all those things to seriously push for the division this year.

On the other hand, the Bengals gambled with their draft the year before this, going with Andy Dalton and AJ Green, it’s paid off simply, to think that two draft picks (granted, their first two) basically elevated them to a playoff team. Great drafting, great boldness. With an improvement at RB, with Green Ellis replacing Benson, I think they’re well set to progress this year, in what should be a weaker division than last year.

Despite the loss of T Sizzle, the Ravens are still very much the team to beat, Ray Rice is the most complete RB in the game, Joe Flacco improves year on year, Torrey Smith should this year step up to be a legitimate deep threat, and although the defense is ageing, they’re still good. I can’t see anything but them winning the division.

AFC SOUTH

Take away the obvious pick, the Texans, is this the worst divison in football?

The Colts will improve (they have to) but are still lacking in a lot of positions, although the initial reports on Andrew Luck are as promising as you’d expect for a man with a campaign named after him #suckforluck but they aren’t going to be pushing anyone this year, in a serious way.

The Jaguars might somehow keep the Colts from propping up the division though, it’s yet to be seen how Blackmon can step up, but can one receiving playmaker really carry such a poor offense? Gabbert might have decent locks, but he’s got to be one of the poorest starting QBs seen for a while, they must regret casting Garrard off so easily. Luckily, their ground game will still be good, with MJD being as consistent as you could ask for, ever the professional he wouldn’t dream of missing crucial time for no good reason when he’s the cornerstone of the franchise. Oh.

The Titans are a tough team to really take stock of, the offense, on paper, could really explode, Cook, Britt and Washington can all make serious plays and if CJ0k can really get back to his best, or close to it the very least, they could put up real points. But as usual with them, there’s just something that niggles with them, I’m not sure if they know what their philosophy is really, they should be good enough to be second, comfortably, in this division but they’re short of the Texans.

Probably the most complete team in the NFL at present, the Texans have got one of the few elite RBs (and a great number two RB), a very solid QB in Matt Schaub (again, backed up with a steady youngster) and when fit one of the best WRs in the game, Andre Johnson. Obviously his fitness is such a big issue, playing less than a full season in nearly half of his NFL career, luckily for the Texans though, they can hit the ground whenever the need arises, so Johnson going down isn’t as crucial as say, Calvin Johnson getting injured. After making their first post season appearance, all indications are that the Texans will do the same this year.

AFC WEST

Wow, a division with Peyton Manning and Phillip Rivers as QBs, and it’s seriously difficult to highlight a winner here, not because the teams are so closely matched in a positive way, it’s just four middling teams.

I’m going with Denver to win the division, not through any strong feeling of them being significantly better, but if, and it’s a big if, Peyton Manning can play sixteen games at a level close to where he was then they should be head and shoulders ahead, this defense knows it can step up, and when to do so. If #tebowtime can drag these players to the post season, surely we have to give a fit Peyton the same likelihood?

The Chargers have been the AFC West favourite for years now, it’s just one of the locks, but a couple of tough years, along with a bit of a clear out (Tolbert/Jackson) they’re looking like a second rate side now, Norv Turner has rightly come in for a lot of criticism but he’s been given another chance, we’ll know in about four months if that was the right decision or not, I suspect not, a rebuild is needed, and it hasn’t happened. As a confirmation, Malcolm Floyd nor Robert Meachem should be a WR1, Antonio Gates is a health risk every down and Ryan Matthews is currently injured. Where’s the progress?

I actually like the Chiefs this year, although I think they’re too limited to get top spot, they can push for second, certainly. If Jamal Charles is fit and Peyton Hillis is motivated they could have the double trouble RB situations that can be dreamt of (I’m going with Chillaz as their cool dudes nickname, combining their surnames), one brutal up the middle runner combining with Charles ability to get downfield in a variety of ways, it was this sort of combo (Charles/Jones) that led to Charles being taken in the top five of Fantasy Drafts last year. A full year on from his injury, he can show that form again.

Oakland will again have the capabilities of winning the division, Carson can sling it with anybody, their receivers are burners and Run DMC can light up any game, but there’s so many questions about whether they can/will turn up every week. The loss of Michael Bush puts more pressure to keep McFadden healthy, which he’s yet to show he can do, I’d guess he’ll play ten games, get turf toe or something similar and the Raiders season will peter out, they haven’t got the consistent play makers.

NFC EAST

Crikey. As it’s been for a long while, the toughest division to confidently predict, four relatively similar teams, all with flaws, all with huge upside..

I’m picking The Dream Team to win it, and not just because Vince Young has left, a year down the line, their defensive back lineup freshened up and a (hopefully for them) focused Desean Jackson should see them improve, despite their seemingly appalling season last year, they were one game from usurping the Superbowl champions as the division champs. I fail to see how they can throw so many games away this time around, even with Vick being an injury risk.

The Giants will probably view themselves as favourites, especially with Eli confirmed as ELIte this past year, Jason Pierre Paul will be expected to come in and dominate as will big time receivers from last year Hakeem Nicks and the huge success story from Victor Cruz. Just reading them names makes me question how they’re down for second in my picks,  but in a role reversal from the Eagles, I can’t see the Giants plucking enough wins from losing positions to drag them to a divisional title, even if they may make a strong playoff team. Still a great team.

I’d rather not even discuss the Cowboys, but I guess I feel obliged, this is probably the least exciting Dallas team in recent memory, the defense has potential to step up a bit more now, with two good back pick ups, but the offense just seems to lack the explosion of recent years, can Romo stay fit and keep his cool? Will Austin be fit all year? Will Witten? Will Bryant play all year? Will Demarco Murray be fit? Far too many questions, nowhere near enough answers. It’s going to be a long year.

The Redskins are tough to breakdown really, this should be viewed as a simple year of transition, settling in RGIII and new receivers, maybe deciding on a starting RB, but, similar things could be seen with the 2011 Bengals, as mentioned above, can RGIII come in and make a Cam Newton type impact, but with more wins? It seems unlikely, but so did Cam or Andy Dalton doing what they did. I think they’ll blow some teams away but struggle over the year.

NFC NORTH

I don’t think this is as clear cut as people would have you think, I mean, Aaron Rodgers is obviously an incredible QB, their WRs can obviously catch the ball and make huge plays, but the same things could be levelled at Detroit also.

I’m still going with Green Bay to take the division, but I’m not as sold on them as others are, and I think the Lions will run them close. Stafford and Megatron having another year together, Pettigrew looking like he has elite potential combined with a real nasty defense could lead them to another playoff appearance. Green Bay are hard to find flaws with, but they had such an incredible turnover differential last year which I feel will be hard to repeat, a few wins could turn to defeats with one interception swapping direction.

Chicago have actually brought in a real bit of competition/back up to Matt Forte in the very solid Michael Bush, but the big Bears move this offseason was bringing in Brandon Marshall. Jay Cutler has somebody to throw to. Seriously. They’re a pretty solid team and will expect to challenge for the division crown again, but for me, as solid as they are (and would be a very solid shout for lesser divisions), their lack of explosiveness makes them impossible to tip for this division.

Where can the Vikings go this year? First thing would be to pray to whomever you choose for a fit Adrian Peterson to emerge in week one. After that, hope he remains fit all year. Hand it off, hand it off. Carlson and Rudolph are a pretty nice pairing at TE, Harvin could be a big receiver if given a full season, but it’s just hard to see Ponder leading them to more than 7 wins, at least they can’t be worse in the division than last year, small blessings..

NFC SOUTH

I’m still surprised to see that New Orleans are the favourite for this division, to me, even without the Bountygate scandle the Saints are a team on the decline, not necessarily a poor team but they’ve certainly peaked, adding a big scandle, no head coach, no back up head coach for part of the season and it all adds up to a potentially messy year. Brees will ensure this doesn’t get too messy, but I fail to see how they can maintain the incredible standards they’ve set over the past five years.

My pick for the divison is the Atalanta Falcons, it’s time for Matt Ryan to shine again, after going 13-3 then 10-6, they can push for closer to 13 wins again this year. Julio Jones and Roddy White, backed up with Tony Gonzalez is as good as you can get in the receiving corps. I love Julio Jones, and can see him going huge this year. If all else fails, Michael Turner is still a handy ground and pound back, although I feel he’s coming to the end of being a RB1, he’s got the record to show he should be respected. I can’t wait for the Falcons to get flying this year.

Cam Newton was one of the biggest stories of the 2011 season, and whatever he does this year, he’ll be another one in 2012, any falloff will be anticipated and he’ll be quickly labelled a fluke, keeping up where his season was overall in 2011 and he’ll continue being one of the faces of the NFL. If somehow he steps up, and performs for sixteen games like he did for the first eight of last year and the NFL could genuinely be changing as we watch.

I imagine he’ll be somewhere around the same as last year, less rushing dominance, more accurate passing, more traditional QB play, saying he’s huge and can take the hits is fine, but no-one wants their QB taking a beating, ever. I find it really hard to split the teams below the Falcons, the Saints will decline and the Panthers will improve, in terms of wins.

Tampa Bay are basically a new team, with a new RB1, a new coach and a new WR1. They’ll hope to have a new (but the same) QB1 too, after looking great in 2010, Josh Freeman went back in a bad way for 2011, now with real weapons and less expectation, I think he can step back up his efficiency. They’ll be a bit away from actually challenging for the division, but they’ll certainly be improving.

NFC WEST

The NFC Championship runners up, the San Francisco 49ers are the big favourites for the divison, but I’m not having it, I don’t think they’re going to score enough points. I know, I know, defense wins championships, but can that defensive performance be repeated? 3 rushing TDs allowed all year? It’s not repeatable. I think Harbaugh has recognised this and has brought in Manningham and Moss to try and improve their explosiveness on offense, but I don’t think Smith can play that way, and will make errors if he tries to force it, putting more pressure on an already under pressure defense.

Obviously on paper they’re favourites, especially after last year, but I’m going for the Cardinals. Again.

I will not learn, I will not stop backing Larry Fitz to drag them to victory. Obviously it isn’t just Larry Fitz, this team won seven of their last nine games. Patrick Peterson became a return machine. If their QB situation can remain settled I think they can surprise a lot of teams and a lot of critics. In a limited division, they can string wins together to keep them in the hunt.

Seattle are going to be interesting to watch this year, a QB battle will surely be back soon, even though Wilson has been named as the starter, how long do you give it, how many losses before Flynn gets thrown in? I don’t see it being long and it’s going to be a distraction. Can Lynch be in Beastmode again? I can’t believe in it, he’s been a hit or miss RB most of his career, I can’t see how he’d suddenly shake that off.

St Louis might be the worst team in the league, I expect Fisher to turn things in the right direction, but it won’t be this year, Bradford isn’t fit enough, Lloyd has gone and the other Steve Smith is not a replacement. It’s going to be a long, tough year.

So in finishing, in brief I’m going

AFC EAST – New England Patriots

AFC NORTH – Baltimore Ravens

AFC SOUTH – Houston Texans

AFC WEST – Denver Broncos

Wildcards – Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals.

NFC EAST – Philadelphia Eagles

NFC NORTH – Green Bay Packers

NFC SOUTH – Atlanta Falcons

NFC WEST – Arizona Cardinals

Wildcards – New York Giants, Detroit Lions.

I’ll go with Patriots over the Texans and Falcons over the Eagles in the Championship games, resulting in a Falcons win over the Patriots.

BETS

Superbowl winner – Atlanta Falcons

Divison winners – Philadelphia Eagles, New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, Atlanta Falcons, Arizona Cardinals, Denver Broncos.

Most Rushing Yards (E/W) – Chris Johnson

Most Passing Yards (E/W) – Matt Ryan

Most Receiving Yards (E/W) – Torrey Smith

All E/W bets are four places.

8/9/11

NFL Picks!

Here’s my season picks for the NFL, with brief reasoning, I’d like to add more, but I need some sleep before getting up to watch the game tonight.

NFC North – Green Bay Packers

It’s easy to go with the Superbowl champions, but it is worth remembering that they were only 10-6 last year and did not win the division. However, Rodgers is as good as it gets at QB now, and crucially they have players back, after winning the Superbowl with more than a dozen players injured, having a hungry group who missed out mixing with squad winners will be a fantastic mix.

Detroit should come closer than usual, but so much depends on the fitness of Stafford and keeping Jahvid Best around for the full year, they’ve got great weapons and a great D-Line, but I just can’t see them stopping Green Bay spreading it out.

NFC South – New Orleans Saints

Probably the toughest divison in the NFL now, with the big three in the division all having legitimate shouts at being a playoff team this year. I just fancy Brees to again lead the Saints to glory, Sproles can come in and help in the way Reggie Bush did, while the RB Committee will allow Mark Ingram to slowly become a genuine NFL player.

I don’t see any way in which the Falcons can go for 13 wins again, as incredible as that was last year, to go one and out in the playoffs renders it all worthless. Michael Turner looks like he’s slowing down, Roddy White should still be fantastic, but with the huge gamble on Julio Jones he really needs to produce early, I don’t think the run will be strong enough to set the pass up as it has in years past, Tony Gonzalez is not the force of old either.

Carolina are going to be tough to predict this year, surely they can’t improve too much just by adding an athletic QB? They will surely be the bottom team again. I think Tampa Bay will finish second, behind the Saints.

NFC West – Arizona Cardinals

From the best division in football to the worst. Eurgh. I really don’t think any of these teams would be playoff contenders in any other division. Just to run through, the QBs in this division are Tavaris Jackson, Alex Smith, Sam Bradford and Kevin Kolb.

Two probably decent but unproven QBs and two awful QBs. This division will surely just be a shootout between between Kolb and Bradford, I’m taking the Cardinals to take it due to having Larry Fit$gerald, Kolb can surely get the ball in his hands. The amount of hype Patrick Peterson got in the draft means that the Cardinals could be a real scoring threat on both sides of the ball, which makes for great watching, I wonder what odds he is to outscore Sidney Rice this year?

I can see David Garrard being either a 49er or a Dolphin by Week Two..

NFC East – Dallas Cowboys

The most obvious pick ever?

I hate to do it, but I always do it, Dallas for the NFC East. I think the Eagles Dream Team nonsense will get blown out of the water as soon as Michael Vick misses a few games, which he always does. VY might look like a reasonable replacement, but barring a few games, he’s hardly looked a dominant NFL QB, hence Rusty Smith being an NFL starter. They might have great name CBs, but I don’t see them shutting anyone down, Redskins excluded, the O-Line is suspect, which doesn’t bode well for Vick, there’s the recovery of Maclin to consider too.

Dallas still have a great high octane offense, with a hopefully for the season, fit Tony Romo. Felix Jones needs to grasp the guaranteed starter slow with both hands, before he reverts to a change of pace back. With just a slight defensive improvement I can see Dallas taking the division, the Redskins don’t warrant a mention, and the Giants just seem to be losing players to injury too much, they aren’t the Packers.

AFC North – Baltimore Ravens

I pretty much back the Ravens every year, because their team just looks better on paper, unfairly discrediting Big Ben because they should just be run heavy, it’s the Steelers! Then Mike Wallace shows that to be bullshit and Big Ben makes plays from nothing.

So, this year, I am backing the Baltimore Ravens. Of course. The Steelers had/have the oldest defence in football, James Harrison is struggling with injury and the league are making sure ‘hard’ defense is punished. Ray Rice has now got Vonta Leach opening holes for him, Lee Evans has joined the recievers, boosting their offensive potential. Once Flacco gets over his Roethlisberger hump, I can just see them going on and winnnig the divison.

The Bengals will just be toss. It’s going to be hilarious watching them all year, odds on Ed Reed outscoring any Bengals reciever? I just can’t see a single proper weapon, I really feel for Dalton and Green, what a situation to be thrown into.

I can see Colt McCoy really developing this year, he did improve last year as the year went on, playing against Steelers/Ravens means you’ve got to step up, even if you aren’t winning games instantly. They won’t trouble the playoffs, but it’ll be good to see them progressing.

AFC South – Houston Texans

Every year the Texans are the trendy pick, dark horses, whatever and pretty much every year Peyton Manning decides that they can wait another year. Again, this year I was going with the Colts, forget Andre Johnson, Mario Willims, Brian Cushing, Matt Schaub, Owen Daniels, Arian Foster. Peyton Manning will not allow it.

Kerry Collins probably will.

That isn’t meant to be as disrespectful as it sounds, but if Manning is missing for half the year, the Colts aren’t making the playoffs. I really can’t think of a bigger tribute to him, but he’s that important.

Jags/Titans again, don’t need mentioned, somehow they might keep the Peyton-less Colts in the Wildcard race, but otherwise, pointless.

(If Manning only misses one game, I am ruling this void)

AFC West – San Diego Chargers

Probably the easiest decision of all the divisions. San Diego are really great, no holdouts, no injuries to hamper their Superbowl run this year. There really can only be one winner in this division. Oakland will not fluke sweep the divison again, Denver are Denver and Dwayne Bowe will not fluke another huge year. Regardless of how good Bowe may be, Matt Cassel can’t do it two years in a row, especially as the Chiefs will surely try to run more.

The Chargers just look best, it’s as simple as that, Rivers is an elite QB, really at the top of his game, with the option of throwing to recievers people have heard of, he should be in for a huge year.

AFC East – New England Patriots

Again, The Jets may have Rex Ryan guaranteeing whatever he pleases, their defense may be great, but while Tom Brady is starting for the Patriots, I won’t be ruling them out. It doesn’t matter who he has, he will throw TDs on anybody.

The Jets should be around the top again, but I see a little fall off from them, probably still enough to push for a Wildcard spot, but Plaxico Burress is no Braylon Edwards replacement and Shonn Greene needs to step up and prove he has feature back durability and talent. The jury is still out.

I like The Bills chances of stepping up, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Stevie Johnson looks a decent pairing, I don’t think they’re as poor as made out.

So, overall going with favourites, but, it isn’t meant to be the mental predictions.

I’ll go for San Diego Chargers to beat Green Bay Packers in the Superbowl.

 

29/8/11

NFL Draft Round-up

Round: 1
(1) Arizona Arwells – Adrian Peterson RB
(2) Team Wilson – Arian Foster RB
** (3) Team Byrne – Ray Rice RB
(4) Kansas City Villa – Jamaal Charles RB
(5) Team Leyshon – Michael Vick QB
(6) Dannington Ravens – Aaron Rodgers QB
(7) New England Fitriots – Chris Johnson RB
(8) Botdert Untied – Maurice Jones-Drew RB
(9) Team Smith – LeSean McCoy RB
(10) Team Hutton – Andre Johnson WR
(11) Harborough Meltdowns – Steven Jackson RB
(12) New York Favre Beans – Michael Turner RB

Round: 2
(13) New York Favre Beans – Tom Brady QB
(14) Harborough Meltdowns – Greg Jennings WR
(15) Team Hutton – Roddy White WR
(16) Team Smith – Calvin Johnson WR
(17) Botdert Untied – Rashard Mendenhall RB
(18) New England Fitriots – Frank Gore RB
(19) Dannington Ravens – Darren McFadden RB
(20) Team Leyshon – Larry Fitzgerald WR
(21) Kansas City Villa – LeGarrette Blount RB
** (22) Team Byrne – Peyton Hillis RB
(23) Team Wilson – Drew Brees QB
(24) Arizona Arwells – Philip Rivers QB

Round: 3
(25) Arizona Arwells – Hakeem Nicks WR
(26) Team Wilson – Antonio Gates TE
** (27) Team Byrne – Mike Wallace WR
(28) Kansas City Villa – Vincent Jackson WR
(29) Team Leyshon – Matt Forte RB
(30) Dannington Ravens – Knowshon Moreno RB
(31) New England Fitriots – Reggie Wayne WR
(32) Botdert Untied – Miles Austin WR
(33) Team Smith – Felix Jones RB
(34) Team Hutton – Shonn Greene RB
(35) Harborough Meltdowns – Dez Bryant WR
(36) New York Favre Beans – DeAngelo Williams RB

Round: 4
(37) New York Favre Beans – DeSean Jackson WR
(38) Harborough Meltdowns – Ahmad Bradshaw RB
(39) Team Hutton – Peyton Manning QB
(40) Team Smith – Tony Romo QB
(41) Botdert Untied – Matt Schaub QB
(42) New England Fitriots – Dwayne Bowe WR
(43) Dannington Ravens – Marques Colston WR
(44) Team Leyshon – Mike Williams WR
(45) Kansas City Villa – Percy Harvin WR
** (46) Team Byrne – Jahvid Best RB
(47) Team Wilson – Jeremy Maclin WR
(48) Arizona Arwells – Dallas Clark TE

Round: 5
(49) Arizona Arwells – Ryan Grant RB
(50) Team Wilson – Santonio Holmes WR
** (51) Team Byrne – Mario Manningham WR
(52) Kansas City Villa – Matt Ryan QB
(53) Team Leyshon – Josh Freeman QB
(54) Dannington Ravens – Jonathan Stewart RB
(55) New England Fitriots – BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB
(56) Botdert Untied – Austin Collie WR
(57) Team Smith – Brandon Lloyd WR
(58) Team Hutton – Beanie Wells RB
(59) Harborough Meltdowns – Anquan Boldin WR
(60) New York Favre Beans – Jason Witten TE

Round: 6
(61) New York Favre Beans – Ryan Mathews RB
(62) Harborough Meltdowns – Fred Jackson RB
(63) Team Hutton – Mark Ingram RB
(64) Team Smith – Jermichael Finley TE
(65) Botdert Untied – Wes Welker WR
(66) New England Fitriots – Ben Roethlisberger QB
(67) Dannington Ravens – Brandon Marshall WR
(68) Team Leyshon – Tim Hightower RB
(69) Kansas City Villa – Sam Bradford QB
** (70) Team Byrne – Eli Manning QB
(71) Team Wilson – Kenny Britt WR
(72) Arizona Arwells – Steve Johnson WR

Round: 7
(73) Arizona Arwells – Steelers D/ST D/ST
(74) Team Wilson – Marshawn Lynch RB
** (75) Team Byrne – Mike Tolbert RB
(76) Kansas City Villa – A.J. Green WR
(77) Team Leyshon – Vernon Davis TE
(78) Dannington Ravens – Packers D/ST D/ST
(79) New England Fitriots – Cedric Benson RB
(80) Botdert Untied – Pierre Thomas RB
(81) Team Smith – James Starks RB
(82) Team Hutton – Owen Daniels TE
(83) Harborough Meltdowns – Plaxico Burress WR
(84) New York Favre Beans – Sidney Rice WR

Round: 8
(85) New York Favre Beans – Daniel Thomas RB
(86) Harborough Meltdowns – Joseph Addai RB
(87) Team Hutton – Matthew Stafford QB
(88) Team Smith – Lance Moore WR
(89) Botdert Untied – Ryan Torain RB
(90) New England Fitriots – Pierre Garcon WR
(91) Dannington Ravens – Joe Flacco QB
(92) Team Leyshon – Michael Bush RB
(93) Kansas City Villa – C.J. Spiller RB
** (94) Team Byrne – Malcom Floyd WR
(95) Team Wilson – Johnny Knox WR
(96) Arizona Arwells – Chad Ochocinco WR

Round: 9
(97) Arizona Arwells – LaDainian Tomlinson RB
(98) Team Wilson – Santana Moss WR
** (99) Team Byrne – Marcedes Lewis TE
(100) Kansas City Villa – Kellen Winslow TE
(101) Team Leyshon – Ravens D/ST D/ST
(102) Dannington Ravens – Jimmy Graham TE
(103) New England Fitriots – Steve Smith WR
(104) Botdert Untied – Mike Thomas WR
(105) Team Smith – Reggie Bush RB
(106) Team Hutton – Brandon Jacobs RB
(107) Harborough Meltdowns – Ryan Fitzpatrick QB
(108) New York Favre Beans – Roy Williams WR

Round: 10
(109) New York Favre Beans – Matt Cassel QB
(110) Harborough Meltdowns – Rob Gronkowski TE
(111) Team Hutton – Julio Jones WR
(112) Team Smith – Kevin Kolb QB
(113) Botdert Untied – Jordy Nelson WR
(114) New England Fitriots – Greg Olsen TE
(115) Dannington Ravens – Ricky Williams RB
(116) Team Leyshon – Robert Meachem WR
(117) Kansas City Villa – Jets D/ST D/ST
** (118) Team Byrne – Thomas Jones RB
(119) Team Wilson – Braylon Edwards WR
(120) Arizona Arwells – Jay Cutler QB

Round: 11
(121) Arizona Arwells – Lee Evans WR
(122) Team Wilson – Jerome Harrison RB
** (123) Team Byrne – James Jones WR
(124) Kansas City Villa – Jacoby Ford WR
(125) Team Leyshon – Willis McGahee RB
(126) Dannington Ravens – Davone Bess WR
(127) New England Fitriots – Zach Miller TE
(128) Botdert Untied – Tony Gonzalez TE
(129) Team Smith – Mike Sims-Walker WR
(130) Team Hutton – Eagles D/ST D/ST
(131) Harborough Meltdowns – Patriots D/ST D/ST
(132) New York Favre Beans – Hines Ward WR

Round: 12
(133) New York Favre Beans – Bears D/ST D/ST
(134) Harborough Meltdowns – Dustin Keller TE
(135) Team Hutton – Danny Woodhead RB
(136) Team Smith – Nate Burleson WR
(137) Botdert Untied – Mark Sanchez QB
(138) New England Fitriots – Jerome Simpson WR
(139) Dannington Ravens – Nate Kaeding K
(140) Team Leyshon – Neil Rackers K
(141) Kansas City Villa – Tony Moeaki TE
** (142) Team Byrne – Montario Hardesty RB
(143) Team Wilson – Donovan McNabb QB
(144) Arizona Arwells – Darren Sproles RB

Round: 13
(145) Arizona Arwells – Mason Crosby K
(146) Team Wilson – Chargers D/ST D/ST
** (147) Team Byrne – Javon Ringer RB
(148) Kansas City Villa – Stephen Gostkowski K
(149) Team Leyshon – Brandon Pettigrew TE
(150) Dannington Ravens – Roy Helu RB
(151) New England Fitriots – David Garrard QB
(152) Botdert Untied – Falcons D/ST D/ST
(153) Team Smith – Rashad Jennings RB
(154) Team Hutton – Ben Tate RB
(155) Harborough Meltdowns – Kyle Orton QB
(156) New York Favre Beans – Saints D/ST D/ST

Round: 14
(157) New York Favre Beans – Josh Brown K
(158) Harborough Meltdowns – Justin Forsett RB
(159) Team Hutton – Danny Amendola WR
(160) Team Smith – Donald Driver WR
(161) Botdert Untied – Anthony Dixon RB
(162) New England Fitriots – Michael Crabtree WR
(163) Dannington Ravens – Titus Young WR
(164) Team Leyshon – Giants D/ST D/ST
(165) Kansas City Villa – Ronnie Brown RB
** (166) Team Byrne – Colt McCoy QB
(167) Team Wilson – Nick Folk K
(168) Arizona Arwells – Lions D/ST D/ST

Round: 15
(169) Arizona Arwells – Chris Cooley TE
(170) Team Wilson – Derrick Mason WR
** (171) Team Byrne – Cardinals D/ST D/ST
(172) Kansas City Villa – Deion Branch WR
(173) Team Leyshon – Bernard Berrian WR
(174) Dannington Ravens – Jacquizz Rodgers RB
(175) New England Fitriots – Rob Bironas K
(176) Botdert Untied – Mewelde Moore RB
(177) Team Smith – 49ers D/ST D/ST
(178) Team Hutton – Garrett Hartley K
(179) Harborough Meltdowns – Adam Vinatieri K
(180) New York Favre Beans – Bernard Scott RB

Round: 16
(181) New York Favre Beans – Aaron Hernandez TE
(182) Harborough Meltdowns – Kevin Walter WR
(183) Team Hutton – Jared Cook TE
(184) Team Smith – Alex Henery K
(185) Botdert Untied – Matt Bryant K
(186) New England Fitriots – Chiefs D/ST D/ST
(187) Dannington Ravens – Mike Williams WR
(188) Team Leyshon – Billy Cundiff K
(189) Kansas City Villa – Randy Moss WR
** (190) Team Byrne – Sebastian Janikowski K
(191) Team Wilson – DeMarco Murray RB
(192) Arizona Arwells – Devin Hester WR

So I ended up with

QB – Eli Manning, Colt McCoy (Home vs Seahawks on Eli’s bye week)

RB – Ray Rice, Peyton Hillis (& his back up for Madden curse), Jahvid Best, Mike Tolbert, Thomas Jones, Javon Ringer (Bring on the CJ2K holdout)

WR – Mike Wallace, Mario Manningham, Malcolm Floyd, James Jones

D/ST – Cardinals.

K – Irrelevant, Janikowski.

I was surprised by how lowly ranked the Cardinals D were, they were decent last year and have added Patrick Peterson, Kolb’s presence should mean the defence isn’t on the field all game too. I really couldn’t be happier with my RBs, though I’d trade a back up for a decent WR for a bit more balanced depth.

Pretty pleased though.

25/7/11

FOOTBALL is properly back. YES.

All it now means is I can get even more excited about Fantasy Football, in every form.

Secondly, Total Access can get back to FOOTBALL chat, not legal bullshit.

Bring it on.

The Draft Fantasy Football seems to be coming on. I really can’t wait for the draft, picking names out of hats, getting a big bit of paper, a timer ready. Excitement.