8/9/11

NFL Picks!

Here’s my season picks for the NFL, with brief reasoning, I’d like to add more, but I need some sleep before getting up to watch the game tonight.

NFC North – Green Bay Packers

It’s easy to go with the Superbowl champions, but it is worth remembering that they were only 10-6 last year and did not win the division. However, Rodgers is as good as it gets at QB now, and crucially they have players back, after winning the Superbowl with more than a dozen players injured, having a hungry group who missed out mixing with squad winners will be a fantastic mix.

Detroit should come closer than usual, but so much depends on the fitness of Stafford and keeping Jahvid Best around for the full year, they’ve got great weapons and a great D-Line, but I just can’t see them stopping Green Bay spreading it out.

NFC South – New Orleans Saints

Probably the toughest divison in the NFL now, with the big three in the division all having legitimate shouts at being a playoff team this year. I just fancy Brees to again lead the Saints to glory, Sproles can come in and help in the way Reggie Bush did, while the RB Committee will allow Mark Ingram to slowly become a genuine NFL player.

I don’t see any way in which the Falcons can go for 13 wins again, as incredible as that was last year, to go one and out in the playoffs renders it all worthless. Michael Turner looks like he’s slowing down, Roddy White should still be fantastic, but with the huge gamble on Julio Jones he really needs to produce early, I don’t think the run will be strong enough to set the pass up as it has in years past, Tony Gonzalez is not the force of old either.

Carolina are going to be tough to predict this year, surely they can’t improve too much just by adding an athletic QB? They will surely be the bottom team again. I think Tampa Bay will finish second, behind the Saints.

NFC West – Arizona Cardinals

From the best division in football to the worst. Eurgh. I really don’t think any of these teams would be playoff contenders in any other division. Just to run through, the QBs in this division are Tavaris Jackson, Alex Smith, Sam Bradford and Kevin Kolb.

Two probably decent but unproven QBs and two awful QBs. This division will surely just be a shootout between between Kolb and Bradford, I’m taking the Cardinals to take it due to having Larry Fit$gerald, Kolb can surely get the ball in his hands. The amount of hype Patrick Peterson got in the draft means that the Cardinals could be a real scoring threat on both sides of the ball, which makes for great watching, I wonder what odds he is to outscore Sidney Rice this year?

I can see David Garrard being either a 49er or a Dolphin by Week Two..

NFC East – Dallas Cowboys

The most obvious pick ever?

I hate to do it, but I always do it, Dallas for the NFC East. I think the Eagles Dream Team nonsense will get blown out of the water as soon as Michael Vick misses a few games, which he always does. VY might look like a reasonable replacement, but barring a few games, he’s hardly looked a dominant NFL QB, hence Rusty Smith being an NFL starter. They might have great name CBs, but I don’t see them shutting anyone down, Redskins excluded, the O-Line is suspect, which doesn’t bode well for Vick, there’s the recovery of Maclin to consider too.

Dallas still have a great high octane offense, with a hopefully for the season, fit Tony Romo. Felix Jones needs to grasp the guaranteed starter slow with both hands, before he reverts to a change of pace back. With just a slight defensive improvement I can see Dallas taking the division, the Redskins don’t warrant a mention, and the Giants just seem to be losing players to injury too much, they aren’t the Packers.

AFC North – Baltimore Ravens

I pretty much back the Ravens every year, because their team just looks better on paper, unfairly discrediting Big Ben because they should just be run heavy, it’s the Steelers! Then Mike Wallace shows that to be bullshit and Big Ben makes plays from nothing.

So, this year, I am backing the Baltimore Ravens. Of course. The Steelers had/have the oldest defence in football, James Harrison is struggling with injury and the league are making sure ‘hard’ defense is punished. Ray Rice has now got Vonta Leach opening holes for him, Lee Evans has joined the recievers, boosting their offensive potential. Once Flacco gets over his Roethlisberger hump, I can just see them going on and winnnig the divison.

The Bengals will just be toss. It’s going to be hilarious watching them all year, odds on Ed Reed outscoring any Bengals reciever? I just can’t see a single proper weapon, I really feel for Dalton and Green, what a situation to be thrown into.

I can see Colt McCoy really developing this year, he did improve last year as the year went on, playing against Steelers/Ravens means you’ve got to step up, even if you aren’t winning games instantly. They won’t trouble the playoffs, but it’ll be good to see them progressing.

AFC South – Houston Texans

Every year the Texans are the trendy pick, dark horses, whatever and pretty much every year Peyton Manning decides that they can wait another year. Again, this year I was going with the Colts, forget Andre Johnson, Mario Willims, Brian Cushing, Matt Schaub, Owen Daniels, Arian Foster. Peyton Manning will not allow it.

Kerry Collins probably will.

That isn’t meant to be as disrespectful as it sounds, but if Manning is missing for half the year, the Colts aren’t making the playoffs. I really can’t think of a bigger tribute to him, but he’s that important.

Jags/Titans again, don’t need mentioned, somehow they might keep the Peyton-less Colts in the Wildcard race, but otherwise, pointless.

(If Manning only misses one game, I am ruling this void)

AFC West – San Diego Chargers

Probably the easiest decision of all the divisions. San Diego are really great, no holdouts, no injuries to hamper their Superbowl run this year. There really can only be one winner in this division. Oakland will not fluke sweep the divison again, Denver are Denver and Dwayne Bowe will not fluke another huge year. Regardless of how good Bowe may be, Matt Cassel can’t do it two years in a row, especially as the Chiefs will surely try to run more.

The Chargers just look best, it’s as simple as that, Rivers is an elite QB, really at the top of his game, with the option of throwing to recievers people have heard of, he should be in for a huge year.

AFC East – New England Patriots

Again, The Jets may have Rex Ryan guaranteeing whatever he pleases, their defense may be great, but while Tom Brady is starting for the Patriots, I won’t be ruling them out. It doesn’t matter who he has, he will throw TDs on anybody.

The Jets should be around the top again, but I see a little fall off from them, probably still enough to push for a Wildcard spot, but Plaxico Burress is no Braylon Edwards replacement and Shonn Greene needs to step up and prove he has feature back durability and talent. The jury is still out.

I like The Bills chances of stepping up, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Stevie Johnson looks a decent pairing, I don’t think they’re as poor as made out.

So, overall going with favourites, but, it isn’t meant to be the mental predictions.

I’ll go for San Diego Chargers to beat Green Bay Packers in the Superbowl.