6/9/12

NFL 2012 SEASON PREVIEW

Amazingly, it’s that time of year again, the Fantasy Draft has been done, the ante post bets are done, so obviously it’s Season Preview time.

AFC EAST

Possibly the easiest division to predict this year, even without Chad Ochocinco, I can’t see past the Patriots winning comfortably. Aaron Hernandez/Gronk/Welker/Lloyd is a great set of receivers, obviously, so long as Brady avoids injury I just can’t see teams keeping up with them. I think Hernandez is in for a massive year this year, at 75% of the NFL teams he’d be a brilliant TE1, but the double set works so well for them, they’ve both been paid, they’ll both get the ball. Perfect.

The Jets have gone backwards,even with #tebowtime coming in. No strengthening at the skill offensive positions will cost them eventually, Santonio Holmes doesn’t look anywhere near a serious WR1 in this league. I can’t see them making the playoffs this year. Rex Out? Miami are seriously poor, no WRs, no proven RB, an unproven (and overhyped?) QB  and Jake Long is injured. It’s going to be a very tough year for them.

My tip for second in the division is the Bills, with a solid ground game with Fred Jackson doing the bruiser running and CJ Spiller a great change of pace/gadget back, they’re well equipped to do the ground and pound, but they’ve also got Ry Fitz who’s a capable, if unspectacular QB, and a relatively decent receiver set. Their big bonus is going to be their defensive front seven though, adding Mario Williams to an already strong bunch could be brilliant, the defense already showed their opportunism last year coming in the top ten for INTs and forced fumbles. They’ve certainly got the makings of a playoff team this year.

AFC NORTH

THE tough division in football, there isn’t a match for it in the current NFL, obviously led in reputation by the two favourites, the Steelers and the Ravens. Obviously for what seems a while now, it’s those two and two relatively soft teams, but this year I actually think the Bengals will finish ahead of the Steelers.

Getting the rubbish out of the way, Cleveland are going with a 28 year old rookie at QB. Along with a seemingly very talented but injury prone RB (two knee operations) going up against three of the toughest run defenses in the league. It’s surely too tough of an ask, if the Browns can come through the season without getting humiliated and without major injuries, they should judge it as a success. There’s new ownership coming in (a Steelers fan none the less), so it’ll be interesting to see how the Browns can try and improve in future years.

I just see this being a year of struggles for the Steelers, they’ve lost two huge dressing room figures in Hines Ward and James Farrior, they’ve had a summer contract annoyance with Mike Wallace and their RB1 is injured without a definite return date. On top of that, this summer they’ve suffered with injuries along their O-Line, I just can’t see how they’re going to be tough enough, considering all those things to seriously push for the division this year.

On the other hand, the Bengals gambled with their draft the year before this, going with Andy Dalton and AJ Green, it’s paid off simply, to think that two draft picks (granted, their first two) basically elevated them to a playoff team. Great drafting, great boldness. With an improvement at RB, with Green Ellis replacing Benson, I think they’re well set to progress this year, in what should be a weaker division than last year.

Despite the loss of T Sizzle, the Ravens are still very much the team to beat, Ray Rice is the most complete RB in the game, Joe Flacco improves year on year, Torrey Smith should this year step up to be a legitimate deep threat, and although the defense is ageing, they’re still good. I can’t see anything but them winning the division.

AFC SOUTH

Take away the obvious pick, the Texans, is this the worst divison in football?

The Colts will improve (they have to) but are still lacking in a lot of positions, although the initial reports on Andrew Luck are as promising as you’d expect for a man with a campaign named after him #suckforluck but they aren’t going to be pushing anyone this year, in a serious way.

The Jaguars might somehow keep the Colts from propping up the division though, it’s yet to be seen how Blackmon can step up, but can one receiving playmaker really carry such a poor offense? Gabbert might have decent locks, but he’s got to be one of the poorest starting QBs seen for a while, they must regret casting Garrard off so easily. Luckily, their ground game will still be good, with MJD being as consistent as you could ask for, ever the professional he wouldn’t dream of missing crucial time for no good reason when he’s the cornerstone of the franchise. Oh.

The Titans are a tough team to really take stock of, the offense, on paper, could really explode, Cook, Britt and Washington can all make serious plays and if CJ0k can really get back to his best, or close to it the very least, they could put up real points. But as usual with them, there’s just something that niggles with them, I’m not sure if they know what their philosophy is really, they should be good enough to be second, comfortably, in this division but they’re short of the Texans.

Probably the most complete team in the NFL at present, the Texans have got one of the few elite RBs (and a great number two RB), a very solid QB in Matt Schaub (again, backed up with a steady youngster) and when fit one of the best WRs in the game, Andre Johnson. Obviously his fitness is such a big issue, playing less than a full season in nearly half of his NFL career, luckily for the Texans though, they can hit the ground whenever the need arises, so Johnson going down isn’t as crucial as say, Calvin Johnson getting injured. After making their first post season appearance, all indications are that the Texans will do the same this year.

AFC WEST

Wow, a division with Peyton Manning and Phillip Rivers as QBs, and it’s seriously difficult to highlight a winner here, not because the teams are so closely matched in a positive way, it’s just four middling teams.

I’m going with Denver to win the division, not through any strong feeling of them being significantly better, but if, and it’s a big if, Peyton Manning can play sixteen games at a level close to where he was then they should be head and shoulders ahead, this defense knows it can step up, and when to do so. If #tebowtime can drag these players to the post season, surely we have to give a fit Peyton the same likelihood?

The Chargers have been the AFC West favourite for years now, it’s just one of the locks, but a couple of tough years, along with a bit of a clear out (Tolbert/Jackson) they’re looking like a second rate side now, Norv Turner has rightly come in for a lot of criticism but he’s been given another chance, we’ll know in about four months if that was the right decision or not, I suspect not, a rebuild is needed, and it hasn’t happened. As a confirmation, Malcolm Floyd nor Robert Meachem should be a WR1, Antonio Gates is a health risk every down and Ryan Matthews is currently injured. Where’s the progress?

I actually like the Chiefs this year, although I think they’re too limited to get top spot, they can push for second, certainly. If Jamal Charles is fit and Peyton Hillis is motivated they could have the double trouble RB situations that can be dreamt of (I’m going with Chillaz as their cool dudes nickname, combining their surnames), one brutal up the middle runner combining with Charles ability to get downfield in a variety of ways, it was this sort of combo (Charles/Jones) that led to Charles being taken in the top five of Fantasy Drafts last year. A full year on from his injury, he can show that form again.

Oakland will again have the capabilities of winning the division, Carson can sling it with anybody, their receivers are burners and Run DMC can light up any game, but there’s so many questions about whether they can/will turn up every week. The loss of Michael Bush puts more pressure to keep McFadden healthy, which he’s yet to show he can do, I’d guess he’ll play ten games, get turf toe or something similar and the Raiders season will peter out, they haven’t got the consistent play makers.

NFC EAST

Crikey. As it’s been for a long while, the toughest division to confidently predict, four relatively similar teams, all with flaws, all with huge upside..

I’m picking The Dream Team to win it, and not just because Vince Young has left, a year down the line, their defensive back lineup freshened up and a (hopefully for them) focused Desean Jackson should see them improve, despite their seemingly appalling season last year, they were one game from usurping the Superbowl champions as the division champs. I fail to see how they can throw so many games away this time around, even with Vick being an injury risk.

The Giants will probably view themselves as favourites, especially with Eli confirmed as ELIte this past year, Jason Pierre Paul will be expected to come in and dominate as will big time receivers from last year Hakeem Nicks and the huge success story from Victor Cruz. Just reading them names makes me question how they’re down for second in my picks,  but in a role reversal from the Eagles, I can’t see the Giants plucking enough wins from losing positions to drag them to a divisional title, even if they may make a strong playoff team. Still a great team.

I’d rather not even discuss the Cowboys, but I guess I feel obliged, this is probably the least exciting Dallas team in recent memory, the defense has potential to step up a bit more now, with two good back pick ups, but the offense just seems to lack the explosion of recent years, can Romo stay fit and keep his cool? Will Austin be fit all year? Will Witten? Will Bryant play all year? Will Demarco Murray be fit? Far too many questions, nowhere near enough answers. It’s going to be a long year.

The Redskins are tough to breakdown really, this should be viewed as a simple year of transition, settling in RGIII and new receivers, maybe deciding on a starting RB, but, similar things could be seen with the 2011 Bengals, as mentioned above, can RGIII come in and make a Cam Newton type impact, but with more wins? It seems unlikely, but so did Cam or Andy Dalton doing what they did. I think they’ll blow some teams away but struggle over the year.

NFC NORTH

I don’t think this is as clear cut as people would have you think, I mean, Aaron Rodgers is obviously an incredible QB, their WRs can obviously catch the ball and make huge plays, but the same things could be levelled at Detroit also.

I’m still going with Green Bay to take the division, but I’m not as sold on them as others are, and I think the Lions will run them close. Stafford and Megatron having another year together, Pettigrew looking like he has elite potential combined with a real nasty defense could lead them to another playoff appearance. Green Bay are hard to find flaws with, but they had such an incredible turnover differential last year which I feel will be hard to repeat, a few wins could turn to defeats with one interception swapping direction.

Chicago have actually brought in a real bit of competition/back up to Matt Forte in the very solid Michael Bush, but the big Bears move this offseason was bringing in Brandon Marshall. Jay Cutler has somebody to throw to. Seriously. They’re a pretty solid team and will expect to challenge for the division crown again, but for me, as solid as they are (and would be a very solid shout for lesser divisions), their lack of explosiveness makes them impossible to tip for this division.

Where can the Vikings go this year? First thing would be to pray to whomever you choose for a fit Adrian Peterson to emerge in week one. After that, hope he remains fit all year. Hand it off, hand it off. Carlson and Rudolph are a pretty nice pairing at TE, Harvin could be a big receiver if given a full season, but it’s just hard to see Ponder leading them to more than 7 wins, at least they can’t be worse in the division than last year, small blessings..

NFC SOUTH

I’m still surprised to see that New Orleans are the favourite for this division, to me, even without the Bountygate scandle the Saints are a team on the decline, not necessarily a poor team but they’ve certainly peaked, adding a big scandle, no head coach, no back up head coach for part of the season and it all adds up to a potentially messy year. Brees will ensure this doesn’t get too messy, but I fail to see how they can maintain the incredible standards they’ve set over the past five years.

My pick for the divison is the Atalanta Falcons, it’s time for Matt Ryan to shine again, after going 13-3 then 10-6, they can push for closer to 13 wins again this year. Julio Jones and Roddy White, backed up with Tony Gonzalez is as good as you can get in the receiving corps. I love Julio Jones, and can see him going huge this year. If all else fails, Michael Turner is still a handy ground and pound back, although I feel he’s coming to the end of being a RB1, he’s got the record to show he should be respected. I can’t wait for the Falcons to get flying this year.

Cam Newton was one of the biggest stories of the 2011 season, and whatever he does this year, he’ll be another one in 2012, any falloff will be anticipated and he’ll be quickly labelled a fluke, keeping up where his season was overall in 2011 and he’ll continue being one of the faces of the NFL. If somehow he steps up, and performs for sixteen games like he did for the first eight of last year and the NFL could genuinely be changing as we watch.

I imagine he’ll be somewhere around the same as last year, less rushing dominance, more accurate passing, more traditional QB play, saying he’s huge and can take the hits is fine, but no-one wants their QB taking a beating, ever. I find it really hard to split the teams below the Falcons, the Saints will decline and the Panthers will improve, in terms of wins.

Tampa Bay are basically a new team, with a new RB1, a new coach and a new WR1. They’ll hope to have a new (but the same) QB1 too, after looking great in 2010, Josh Freeman went back in a bad way for 2011, now with real weapons and less expectation, I think he can step back up his efficiency. They’ll be a bit away from actually challenging for the division, but they’ll certainly be improving.

NFC WEST

The NFC Championship runners up, the San Francisco 49ers are the big favourites for the divison, but I’m not having it, I don’t think they’re going to score enough points. I know, I know, defense wins championships, but can that defensive performance be repeated? 3 rushing TDs allowed all year? It’s not repeatable. I think Harbaugh has recognised this and has brought in Manningham and Moss to try and improve their explosiveness on offense, but I don’t think Smith can play that way, and will make errors if he tries to force it, putting more pressure on an already under pressure defense.

Obviously on paper they’re favourites, especially after last year, but I’m going for the Cardinals. Again.

I will not learn, I will not stop backing Larry Fitz to drag them to victory. Obviously it isn’t just Larry Fitz, this team won seven of their last nine games. Patrick Peterson became a return machine. If their QB situation can remain settled I think they can surprise a lot of teams and a lot of critics. In a limited division, they can string wins together to keep them in the hunt.

Seattle are going to be interesting to watch this year, a QB battle will surely be back soon, even though Wilson has been named as the starter, how long do you give it, how many losses before Flynn gets thrown in? I don’t see it being long and it’s going to be a distraction. Can Lynch be in Beastmode again? I can’t believe in it, he’s been a hit or miss RB most of his career, I can’t see how he’d suddenly shake that off.

St Louis might be the worst team in the league, I expect Fisher to turn things in the right direction, but it won’t be this year, Bradford isn’t fit enough, Lloyd has gone and the other Steve Smith is not a replacement. It’s going to be a long, tough year.

So in finishing, in brief I’m going

AFC EAST – New England Patriots

AFC NORTH – Baltimore Ravens

AFC SOUTH – Houston Texans

AFC WEST – Denver Broncos

Wildcards – Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals.

NFC EAST – Philadelphia Eagles

NFC NORTH – Green Bay Packers

NFC SOUTH – Atlanta Falcons

NFC WEST – Arizona Cardinals

Wildcards – New York Giants, Detroit Lions.

I’ll go with Patriots over the Texans and Falcons over the Eagles in the Championship games, resulting in a Falcons win over the Patriots.

BETS

Superbowl winner – Atlanta Falcons

Divison winners – Philadelphia Eagles, New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, Atlanta Falcons, Arizona Cardinals, Denver Broncos.

Most Rushing Yards (E/W) – Chris Johnson

Most Passing Yards (E/W) – Matt Ryan

Most Receiving Yards (E/W) – Torrey Smith

All E/W bets are four places.